“Every year, the public gets a window into the White House’s views of the economy when the administration publishes the Economic Report of the President. Typically, it is a dense but interesting read, offering a data-driven assessment of the economy, and highly anticipated by economists, policymakers and others who care about economic policy. However, the Trump administration’s 2019 report is a sharp departure from those of previous administrations.
This year’s report misconstrues well-established facts, cherry-picks data, relies on economic theories widely rejected by mainstream economists and entirely omits critical subjects. I correct the record in the Joint Economic Committee Democratic response to the report, which is mandated by law, and was released Thursday.
The report claims full credit for economic conditions that President Trump mostly inherited from President Obama. At the time of President Trump’s inauguration, the unemployment rate was 4.7% and trending down, while the economy had added jobs for 76 straight months. Moreover, the average monthly job growth during the last two years of the Obama administration was stronger than the first two years of the Trump administration. Even so, Trump implausibly has claimed that he has achieved an economic turnaround.
The Trump administration’s economic forecast is also extremely optimistic compared to those of respected nonpartisan sources like the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office. It’s The administration’s estimates of real GDP growth of 3% or greater each year through 2024 are 50% higher than the Federal Reserve’s and assume implausible legislative victories, such as the permanent extension of the personal income tax changes in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, in order to achieve its forecasts.”
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